Geographic distribution of desmodus rotundus in Mexico under current and future climate change scenarios : implications for bovine paralytic rabies infection

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dc.audience researchers es_MX
dc.contributor.author HELIOT ZARZA, 0000-0003-2127-0811
dc.contributor.author Enrique Martínez-Meyer, 0000-0003-1184-9264
dc.contributor.author Gerardo Suzán, 0000-0003-2508-6376
dc.contributor.author Gerardo Ceballos, 0000-0001-8374-2656
dc.coverage MX es_MX
dc.date.accessioned 2018-05-31T01:45:09Z
dc.date.available 2018-05-31T01:45:09Z
dc.date.issued 2017
dc.description Climate change may modify the spatial distribution of reservoirs hosting emerging and reemerging zoonotic pathogens, and forecasting these changes is essential for developing prevention and adaptation strategies. The most important reservoir of bovine paralytic rabies in tropical countries, is the vampire bat (Desmodus rotundus). In Mexico, the cattle industry loses more than $2.6 million US dollar, annually to this infectious disease. Therefore, we predicted the change in the distribution of D. rotundus due to future climate change scenarios, and examined the likely effect that the change in its distribution will have on paralytic rabies infections in Mexico. We used the correlative maximum entropy based model algorithm to predict the potential distribution of D. rotundus. Consistent with the literature, our results showed that temperature was the variable most highly associated with the current distribution of vampire bats. The highest concentration of bovine rabies was in Central and Southeastern Mexico, regions that also have high cattle population densities. Furthermore, our climatic envelope models predicted that by 2050–2070, D. rotundus will lose 20 % of its current distribution while the northern and central regions of Mexico will become suitable habitats for D. rotundus. Together, our study provides an advanced notice of the likely change in spatial patterns of D. rotundus and bovine paralytic rabies, and presents an important tool for strengthening the National Epidemiological Surveillance System and Monitoring programmes, useful for establishing holistic, long-term strategies to control this disease in Mexico. es_MX
dc.format application/pdf es_MX
dc.identificador.materia 2 es_MX
dc.identifier.other http://dx.doi.org/10.21753/vmoa.4.3.390
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12222/49
dc.language eng es_MX
dc.publisher Universidad Nacional Autonoma de México. Facultad de Medicina Veterinaria y Zootecnia. es_MX
dc.rights Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internacional *
dc.rights.license info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess es_MX
dc.rights.uri http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ es_MX
dc.source.other Veterinaria México OA (3) vol.4 (2017) es_MX
dc.source.other ISSN: 0301-5092 es_MX
dc.subject BIOLOGÍA Y QUÍMICA es_MX
dc.subject.keywords Rabia paralítica es_MX
dc.subject.keywords Murciélago vampiro es_MX
dc.subject.keywords Rabia es_MX
dc.subject.keywords Modelos de nicho ecológico es_MX
dc.subject.keywords Ganado es_MX
dc.subject.keywords Cambio climático es_MX
dc.subject.keywords Vampire bat es_MX
dc.subject.keywords Rabies es_MX
dc.subject.keywords Maximum entropy model es_MX
dc.subject.keywords Livestock es_MX
dc.title Geographic distribution of desmodus rotundus in Mexico under current and future climate change scenarios : implications for bovine paralytic rabies infection es_MX
dc.type article es_MX
dc.type.version info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion es_MX
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